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 Risk, uncertainty and decision in industry and environment


  Paul-Henri BOURRELIER (AFPCN), Bertrand MUNIER (IMdR)


Risk management often seems to rely upon observed objective data. Such data either allow sufficient exploration of feared events or expected opportunities or even allow “objectively ciphered” prediction of events consequences and/or their likelihood.

Being industrial events or natural risks, the belief in objective information, necessary for risk management, is often illusory, distorting and costly

-illusory for data is considered as objective whereas it is often only interpretations of observed facts and hence highly subjective,

-distorting because it does not permit to conform “risk policy” as defined in ISO 31000 standard with actor risk behaviour,

-costly because it leads to the opinion that an only big size database, difficult to create, feed and handle, will permit relevant information. On the contrary, relevant information can be obtained at low cost at company or organization experts.


Using elements extracted from disciplines such as cognitive psychology, social psychology and economical decision, the working group intends to explore how information can be formatted to feed models of natural or industrial risk management. The concern of extreme events will obviously be a problem to face. In a first step, the way to get information close to experienced actors will be studied and its limits appreciated.

Operation Modes

A first meeting has been held in Autumn 2011 by AFPCN IMDR working group supported by AFPCN scientific counsel. AS of February 7th, 2012, a monthly meeting is forecast on this thematics from 4.45 pm to 7 pm.

During each meeting, a talk will be made by a member of the group, followed by a debate. A report will be provided.

Paul-Henri Bourrelier (AFPCN) and Bertrand Munier (IMdR) are in charge of group organization.

Expected products

An overview of 2011-2012 works will be edited, being possibly one or several chapters of a booklet or book to be edited by an organizer whoever.

The working group is open to every interested member of IMDR or AFPCN. Would you join, please register at Julie Pétrelle (afpcn@engref.agroparistech.fr , tél.: 0145498836) or at  Jean- Pierre Petit (imdr@orange.fr tél. : 0145364210). You will be sent a provisional meeting schedule in return.

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