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  Emerging Risks


Risks related to extreme natural events and their consequences upon complex systems


 Alain GELLY

1.  Context :

During the last years, extreme natural events frequency tends to increase and more and more information is provided by media to public audience. On the contrary, some actors tend to deny and underestimate the risk, whereas an incresing cost of these events consequences is noticed.

2. Orientations and  proposed objectives:

  • Review low probability and extreme consequences hazards
  • State of the art upon on going research to prevent and reduce such a risk consequences
  • Review these events consequences on vulnerability and unavailability of subsystems within complex systems

3. Proposed working method :

One or two  brainstorming sessions to define the WG  framework :

  •  Identify  extreme natural events types, their characteristics and physical effects as well as their emergence, probability 
  •  Identify complex systems types eventually threatened and their couldbe unacceptable impacts,
  • Several sessions of presentation by WG partners of their own  experience in their activity field ( event type, threatened complex system type, preventive actions, crisis management plan, return to activity, feedback experience )in order to draw orientations good practices  ,
  • Call experts as and whenever necessary.

4. Expected products  :

Reports, communications, seminars  ...

5. Considered schedule  :

To be precised at WG  launch meeting

6.IMdR members who already showed interest to participate :


7 Manager
Alain Gelly
Port : 06 86 43 86 67

8 Coordinator :
Jean-François Raffoux, IMdR (Port : 06 15 16 30 17)

Would you be interested by the WG activities, please contact manager or coordinator.

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Next meeting Haut de page

The next meeting will be held : February 10, 2014